Leading economic indicators in the month of September stayed essentially “flat,” according to an Oct. 22 press release from business research firm The Conference Board.
The Leading Economic Index (LEI), a measure of where the economy is headed based on 10 component indicators, remained at 99.6 (assuming a 100-point baseline equivalent to 2016 economic conditions) in September. August’s Leading Economic Index was reported at 99.5 in The Conference Board’s September press release.
The small discrepancy is “due to an upward revision to July’s data,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.
Zabinska-La Monica summarized September’s LEI data as follows: “Five out of ten components made positive contributions…in September, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing. Nevertheless, these gains were offset by a large decline in consumer expectations and much smaller negative contributions from stock prices, new orders for capital goods and building permits.”
Consumer expectations declined -0.29% from August, while the next highest declines (the S&P 500 Stock Index and new orders for capital goods) only clocked in at -0.02%. Building permits decreased slightly last month at -0.01%.
Relatively dismal consumer expectations are in line with data from the last six months, as consumers report feeling pessimistic despite some positive economic indicators. The Conference Board’s data for March through September 2026 shows a 0.6% increase in LEI with few negative indicators except for consumer expectations.
The Coincident Economic Index (CEI), a measure of the current economic situation, increased 0.3% to 115.3 in September. Overall, the CEI increased 0.9% from March to September.
The Lagging Economic Index (LAG), designed to confirm economists’ assessments of the current economic situation, increased 0.5% to 121.1. Over the course of March to September, the LAG increased 1.0%, double its growth rate of 0.5% over the prior six months.
Zabinska-La Monica suggests that the big picture may promise cautious optimism as well as the winds of change. According to her, “the economy is still growing and will continue to grow, but (it) is becoming less dependent on consumer spending and more dependent on business investment. The Conference Board now expects real GDP to grow by a 2.2% annualized rate in 2026, with our outlook for 2027 at 2.0%, higher than previously forecasted.”
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